Effect of Medication Therapy Management by Pharmaceutical Care on Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Risk in Hypertension: A Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Meta-Regression.

Medication therapy management by pharmaceutical care (MTM-PC) has been shown to improve the effectiveness of antihypertensive treatments. The aim was to answer the question: what are the MTM-PC models and their impact on hypertensive patients' outcomes? This is a systematic review with meta-analysis. The search strategies were run on 27 September 2022 in the following databases: PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, LILACs, Central Cochrane Library, Web of Science; and International Pharmaceutical Abstracts. The quality and bias risk was assessed by the Downs and Black instrument. Forty-one studies met the eligibility criteria and were included, Kappa = 0.86; 95% CI, 0.66-1.0; (p < 0.001). Twenty-seven studies (65.9%) had MTM-PC models outlined by the clinical team, showing as characteristics the mean of 10.0 ± 10.7 months of follow-up of hypertensive patients, with 7.7 ± 4.9 consultations. Instruments to assess the quality of life measured the enhancement by 13.4 ± 10.7% (p = 0.047). The findings of the meta-analysis show a mean reduction of -7.71 (95% CI, -10.93 to -4.48) and -3.66 (95% CI, -5.51 to -1.80), (p < 0.001) in mmHg systolic and diastolic pressures, respectively. Cardiovascular relative risk (RR) over ten years was 0.561 (95% CI, 0.422 to 0.742) and RR = 0.570 (95% CI, 0.431 to 0.750), considering homogeneous studies, I² = 0%. This study shows the prevalence of MTM-PC models outlined by the clinical team, in which there are differences according to the models in reducing blood pressure and cardiovascular risk over ten years with the improvement in quality of life.

Validação de face, conteúdo e semântica da escala de avaliação do risco de quedas em pessoas idosas que vivem na comunidade / Face, content and semantic validation of the scale for assessing the risk of falls in community-dwelling elderly people / Validación facial, de contenido y semántica de la escala de evaluación del riesgo de caídas en ancianos residentes en la comunidad

Introdução: quedas em pessoas idosas constituem um sério problema de saúde e geram muitas preocupações para estudiosos e clínicos da geriatria e gerontologia. Objetivo: avaliar a validade de face e de conteúdo e a validade semântica de uma escala de avaliação do risco de quedas em idosos que vivem na comunidade. Método: trata-se de um estudo do tipo metodológico, com realização das seguintes etapas: validade de face e de conteúdo e análise semântica. Na análise de validade de face e de conteúdo, foram convidados sete juízes especialistas na área de saúde da pessoa idosa e do método em questão. Concernente à análise semântica, a referida escala foi aplicada em 20 idosos selecionadas por conveniência. Resultados: dos sete juízes contatados, cinco retornaram com os instrumentos. Na análise de aparência, cinco itens receberam concordância inferior a 80%. Na análise semântica, apenas dois itens foram identificados como de difícil compreensão pelas pessoas idosas. A segunda versão da escala apresentava 43 itens e, após avaliação dos juízes, passou a compor 44 itens. Conclusão: a escala apresenta validade de face, de conteúdo e semântica para o contexto atual e para a população-alvo estudada, sendo importante sua revisão e adequação em momentos pósteros a fim de acompanhar os avanços científicos da geriatria e gerontologia.

Introduction: falls in elderly people constitute a serious health problem and generate many concerns for scholars and clinicians in geriatrics and gerontology. Objective: to evaluate the face and content validity and semantic validity of a scale to assess the risk of falls in community-dwelling elderly people. Method: this is a methodological study, with the following stages: face and content validity and semantic analysis. For the face and content validity analysis, seven judges, experts in the area of elderly health and the method in question, were invited. Regarding the semantic analysis, the scale was applied to 20 elderly people selected by convenience. Results: of the seven judges contacted, five returned with the instruments. In the appearance analysis, five items received less than 80% agreement. In the semantic analysis, only two items were identified as difficult to understand by the elderly. The second version of the scale had 43 items and, after the judges' evaluation, it became 44 items. Conclusion: the scale presents face, content and semantic validity for the current context and for the target population studied, being important its revision and adequacy in later moments in order to follow the scientific advances in geriatrics and gerontology.

Introducción: las caídas en ancianos constituyen un grave problema de salud y generan muchas preocupaciones a los estudiosos y clínicos en geriatría y gerontología. Objetivo: evaluar la validez facial y de contenido y la validez semántica de una escala para evaluar el riesgo de caídas en ancianos residentes en la comunidad. Método: se trata de un estudio metodológico, con las siguientes etapas: validez facial y de contenido y análisis semántico. Para el análisis de la validez facial y de contenido se invitó a siete jueces, expertos en el ámbito de la salud de las personas mayores y en el método en cuestión. En cuanto al análisis semántico, la escala se aplicó a 20 ancianos seleccionados por conveniencia. Resultados: de los siete jueces contactados, cinco devolvieron los instrumentos. En el análisis de apariencia, cinco ítems recibieron menos del 80% de acuerdo. En el análisis semántico, sólo dos ítems fueron identificados como difíciles de entender por las personas mayores. La segunda versión de la escala tenía 43 ítems y, tras la evaluación de los jueces, pasó a tener 44 ítems. Conclusión: la escala presenta validez facial, de contenido y semántica para el contexto actual y para la población objetivo estudiada, siendo importante su revisión y adecuación en momentos posteriores para acompañar los avances científicos en geriatría y gerontología.

COSTS ANALYSIS OF SPINAL COLUMN METASTASES SURGICAL TREATMENT.

Introduction: End-of-life cancer treatment is associated with substantial healthcare costs. Objective: This study aimed to analyze the surgical treatment cost of spinal metastasis and epidural compression patients undergoing surgical treatment. Methods: A retrospective cost analysis of 81 patients with spinal metastasis and epidural compression undergoing surgical treatment. Cost evaluation was defined in the following categories: medications, laboratory and imaging tests, nursery, recovery room, intensive care unit, surgical procedure, and consigned material. The cost of pain improvement, functional activity, and survival was also evaluated. Results: The total cost of surgical treatment for 81 patients was $3,604,334.26, and the average value for each patient was $44,497.95. The highest costs were related to implants (41.1%), followed by hospitalization (27.3%) and surgical procedure (19.7%). Conclusion: The cost of surgical treatment for spinal metastases is one of the most expensive bone complications in cancer patients. The cost of treatment related to outcomes showed differences according to the outcome analyzed. Hospital stay, tests, drugs, and intensive care play an important role in some of the costs related to the specific outcome. Level of Evidence II, Retrospective Study .

Introdução: O tratamento do câncer em fim de vida está associado a custos substanciais em saúde. Objetivo: O objetivo do estudo foi analisar o custo do tratamento cirúrgico de pacientes com metástase espinhal e compressão peridural submetidos ao tratamento cirúrgico. Métodos: Uma análise retrospectiva de custos de 81 pacientes com metástase espinhal e compressão peridural submetidos a tratamento cirúrgico. A avaliação de custos foi definida nas seguintes categorias: medicamentos, exames laboratoriais e de imagem, enfermaria, sala de recuperação, unidade de terapia intensiva, procedimento cirúrgico e material consignado. O custo relacionado à melhora da dor, atividade funcional e sobrevida também foi avaliado. Resultados: O custo total do tratamento cirúrgico de 81 pacientes foi de R $ 3.604.334,26 e o valor médio de cada paciente foi de R $ 44.497,95. Os maiores gastos foram relacionados com implantes (41,1%), seguidos de internação (27,3%) e procedimento cirúrgico (19,7%). Conclusão: O custo do tratamento cirúrgico para metástases espinhais é um dos mais caros entre as complicações ósseas em pacientes com câncer. O custo do tratamento relacionado aos desfechos apresentou diferença de acordo com o desfecho analisado e a permanência hospitalar, exames, medicamentos e terapia intensiva tem papel importante em alguns dos custos relacionados ao desfecho específico. Nível de Evidência II, Estudo retrospectivo .

Predictors of hospital readmission within 30 days after surgery for thoracolumbar fractures: A mixed approach.

BACKGROUND: Readmission followed by surgery to treat spinal fractures has a substantial impact on patient care costs and reflects a hospital's quality standards. This article analyzes the factors associated with hospital readmission followed by surgery to treat spinal fractures. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study with time-series analysis. For prediction analysis, we used Cox proportional hazards and machine-learning models, using data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, Inpatient Database from Florida (USA). RESULTS: The sample comprised 215,999 patients, 8.8% of whom were readmitted within 30 days. The factors associated with a risk of readmission were male sex (1.1 [95% confidence interval 1.06-1.13]) and >60 years of age (1.74 [95% CI: 1.69-1.8]). Surgeons with a higher annual patient volume presented a lower risk of readmission (0.61 [95% CI: 0.59-0.63]) and hospitals with an annual volume >393 presented a lower risk (0.92 [95% CI: 0.89-0.95]). CONCLUSION: Surgical procedures and other selected predictors and machine-learning models can be used to reduce 30-day readmissions after spinal surgery. Identification of patients at higher risk for readmission and complications is the first step to reducing unplanned readmissions.

Time-driven activity-based costing as a strategy to increase efficiency: An analyses of interventional coronary procedures.

Monitoring the costs is one of the key components underlying value-based health care. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-saving opportunities of interventional coronary procedures (ICPs). Data from 90 patients submitted to elective ICP were evaluated in five Brazilian hospitals. Time-driven activity-based costing, that guides the cost estimates using the time consumed and the capacity cost rates per resource as the data input, was used to assess costs and the time spent over the care pathway. Descriptive cost analyses were followed by a labour cost-saving estimate potentially achieved by the redesign of the ICP pathway. The mean cost per patient varied from $807 to $2639. The length of the procedure phase per patient was similar among the hospitals, while the post-procedure phase presented the highest variation in length. The highest direct cost saving opportunities are concentrated in the procedure phase. By comparing the benchmark service with the most expensive one, it was estimated that redesigning physician practices could decrease 51% of the procedure cost. This application is pioneered in Brazil and demonstrates how detailed cost information can contribute to driving health care management to value by identifying cost-saving opportunities.

Costs analysis of spinal column metastases surgical treatment / Análise dos custos do tratamento cirúrgico das metástases da coluna vertebral

ABSTRACT Introduction End-of-life cancer treatment is associated with substantial healthcare costs. Objective This study aimed to analyze the surgical treatment cost of spinal metastasis and epidural compression patients undergoing surgical treatment. Methods A retrospective cost analysis of 81 patients with spinal metastasis and epidural compression undergoing surgical treatment. Cost evaluation was defined in the following categories: medications, laboratory and imaging tests, nursery, recovery room, intensive care unit, surgical procedure, and consigned material. The cost of pain improvement, functional activity, and survival was also evaluated. Results The total cost of surgical treatment for 81 patients was $3,604,334.26, and the average value for each patient was $44,497.95. The highest costs were related to implants (41.1%), followed by hospitalization (27.3%) and surgical procedure (19.7%). Conclusion The cost of surgical treatment for spinal metastases is one of the most expensive bone complications in cancer patients. The cost of treatment related to outcomes showed differences according to the outcome analyzed. Hospital stay, tests, drugs, and intensive care play an important role in some of the costs related to the specific outcome. Level of Evidence II, Retrospective Study.

RESUMO Introdução O tratamento do câncer em fim de vida está associado a custos substanciais em saúde. Objetivo O objetivo do estudo foi analisar o custo do tratamento cirúrgico de pacientes com metástase espinhal e compressão peridural submetidos ao tratamento cirúrgico. Métodos Uma análise retrospectiva de custos de 81 pacientes com metástase espinhal e compressão peridural submetidos a tratamento cirúrgico. A avaliação de custos foi definida nas seguintes categorias: medicamentos, exames laboratoriais e de imagem, enfermaria, sala de recuperação, unidade de terapia intensiva, procedimento cirúrgico e material consignado. O custo relacionado à melhora da dor, atividade funcional e sobrevida também foi avaliado. Resultados O custo total do tratamento cirúrgico de 81 pacientes foi de R $ 3.604.334,26 e o valor médio de cada paciente foi de R $ 44.497,95. Os maiores gastos foram relacionados com implantes (41,1%), seguidos de internação (27,3%) e procedimento cirúrgico (19,7%). Conclusão O custo do tratamento cirúrgico para metástases espinhais é um dos mais caros entre as complicações ósseas em pacientes com câncer. O custo do tratamento relacionado aos desfechos apresentou diferença de acordo com o desfecho analisado e a permanência hospitalar, exames, medicamentos e terapia intensiva tem papel importante em alguns dos custos relacionados ao desfecho específico. Nível de Evidência II, Estudo retrospectivo.

Seasonal variations in incidence of femoral fractures in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, southern Brazil / Variações sazonais na incidência de fraturas do fêmur no estado do Rio Grande do Sul, sul do Brasil

Abstract Introduction Femoral fractures are a major cause of morbidity and mortality, mainly among older people. Objective To examine the effect of seasonality on hospitalizations due to femur fracture among people residing in the Rio Grande do Sul state, southern Brazil, from 2008 to 2019. Methods Ecological study based on secondary data from the SUS Hospital Information System (SIH/SUS). A total of 74,374 reports of hospital admissions was considered. The generalized additive model (GAM) approach was employed to assess the seasonality of the time series, with stratification by sex and age groups and considering the monthly average number of events of femoral fractures per day as a dependent variable. Results A considerably higher incidence of femoral fractures in women aged 70 years or more was described. Among people aged less than 50 years, there is not an apparent seasonal effect. Men aged 70 years or older and women aged 50 years or older have a higher frequency of hospitalizations due to femur fractures in the colder months. Conclusion Among older people, more femoral fractures occurred during the winter compared to summer. This supports findings from other studies, although reasons for this seasonal variation are uncertain. The knowledge of these seasonal variations can help to plan the health care in the public health system.

Resumo Introdução As fraturas de fêmur são uma das causas principais de morbidade e mortalidade, principalmente entre as pessoas idosas. Objetivo Examinar o efeito da sazonalidade nas hospitalizações devido à fratura do fêmur entre residentes do estado do Rio Grande do Sul, sul do Brasil, de 2008 a 2019. Métodos Trata-se de um estudo ecológico baseado em dados secundários do Sistema de Informação Hospitalar do SUS (SIH/SUS). Um total de 74.374 relatórios de internações hospitalares foi considerado. O modelo aditivo generalizado (GAM) foi usado para avaliar a sazonalidade da série temporal, com estratificação por sexo e grupos etários e considerando a média mensal de eventos de fraturas do fêmur por dia como uma variável dependente. Resultados Descreveu-se uma incidência consideravelmente maior de fraturas do fêmur em mulheres com 70 anos de idade ou mais. Entre as pessoas com menos de 50 anos de idade, não há um efeito sazonal aparente. Homens com idade de 70 anos ou mais e mulheres com 50 anos ou mais têm maior frequência de hospitalizações devido a fraturas do fêmur nos meses mais frios. Conclusão Entre as pessoas mais idosas, as fraturas do fêmur ocorreram mais frequentemente durante o inverno em comparação ao verão. Isto reafirma os resultados de outros estudos, embora as razões para esta variação sazonal sejam incertas. O conhecimento destas variações sazonais pode ajudar no planejamento da assistência médica no sistema público de saúde.

Comorbidities and the risk of death among individuals infected by COVID-19 in Espírito Santo, Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: We investigated the association of self-reported comorbidities with fatality risk among individuals infected with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Espírito Santo State, Brazil. METHODS: We included 212,620 individuals, ≥30 years old. The data were obtained from the COVID-19 panel. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression model were used. RESULTS: COVID-19-positive individuals presenting with chronic conditions were at a higher risk of fatality than individuals without these comorbidities. Age had a significant effect on these relationships. CONCLUSIONS: Comorbidities were associated with an increased risk of fatality. Middle-aged people (30-59 years) with comorbidities should also be considered as a vulnerable group.

Association of congenital anomalies in live births with their obstetric-neonatal and sociodemographic profiles / Asociación entre anomalías congénitas en nacidos vivos y sus perfiles obstétrico-neonatal y sociodemográfico / Associação de anomalias congênitas em nascidos vivos com seus perfis obstétrico-neonatal e sociodemográfico

ABSTRACT Objective: to identify the association of congenital anomalies in live births with the obstetric-neonatal and sociodemographic profile. Methods: an ecological study, conducted in 2019, with 251,444 live births, identified through the database of the Live Birth Information System of the Minas Gerais Health Secretariat. Descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression were adopted for the analysis. Results: 1,865 cases of anomalies (0.7%) were found, with predominance of deformity of the musculoskeletal system in 789 (42.3%) live births. The variables that presented a significant association with congenital anomalies were single mothers, age ≥35 years old, inadequately performed prenatal care initiated in the third trimester of pregnancy, double (or more) pregnancy, preterm births, cesarean delivery, fetal breech presentation, exclusive assistance by the medical professional during delivery, newborn with high-risk 5-minute Apgar score, low birth weight, and male gender. Conclusion: in 2019, the congenital malformations in the state of Minas Gerais were associated with single women, aged ≥35 years old, who underwent inadequate and late prenatal care, and with double or more pregnancies. In relation to the newborns, the malformations were associated with a high risk for late sequelae, weight between ≤1,000 g and <2.500 g, and male gender.

RESUMEN Objetivo: identificar la asociación entre las anomalías congénitas en nacidos vivos y el perfil obstétrico-neonatal y sociodemográfico. Métodos: estudio ecológico realizado en el año 2019 con 251.444 nacidos vivos, identificados por medio de la base de datos del Sistema de Información sobre Nacidos Vivos de la Secretaría de Salud de Minas Gerais. Para el análisis, se adoptaron estadística descriptiva y regresión logística binaria. Resultados: se encontraron 1.865 casos de anomalías (0,7%), con predominio de deformidad del sistema osteomuscular en 789 (42,3%) nacidos vivos. Las variables que presentaron una asociación significativa con las anomalía congénitas fueron las siguientes: madres solteras, edad ≥35 años, cursar atención pre-natal inadecuada e iniciada en el tercer trimestre de embarazo, embarazo de gemelos o más bebés, nacimientos prematuros, parto por cesárea, presentación fetal pelviana, asistencia exclusiva de un médico durante el parto, recién nacido con Apgar de alto riesgo al quinto minuto, bajo peso al nascer y sexo masculino. Conclusión: en el año 2019, las malformaciones congénitas en el estado de Minas Gerais estuvieron asociadas a mujeres solteras, con edad ≥35 años, que cursaron atención pre-natal inadecuada y tardía, con embarazos de gemelos o más bebés. En relación con los recién nacidos, las malformaciones estuvieron asociadas con alto riesgo de secuelas tardías, peso entre ≤1.000 g y <2.500 g y ser del sexo masculino.

RESUMO Objetivo: identificar a associação das anomalias congênitas em nascidos vivos com o perfil obstétrico-neonatal e sociodemográfico. Método: estudo ecológico, realizado em 2019, com 251.444 nascidos vivos, identificados por meio do banco de dados do Sistema de Informações de Nascidos Vivos da Secretaria de Saúde de Minas Gerais. Para análise, adotaram-se a estatística descritiva e a regressão logística binária. Resultados: foram encontrados 1.865 casos de anomalias (0,7%), com predominância de deformidade do sistema osteomuscular em 789 (42,3%) nascidos vivos. As variáveis que apresentaram associação significativa com a anomalia congênita foram mães solteiras, idade ≥35 anos, pré-natal realizado de forma inadequada, iniciado no terceiro trimestre de gestação, gestação dupla ou mais, nascimentos pré-termo, parto cesárea, apresentação fetal pélvica, assistência exclusiva do profissional médico durante o parto, recém-nascido com Apgar de alto risco no quinto minuto, baixo peso ao nascer e sexo masculino. Conclusão: em 2019, as malformações congênitas no estado de Minas Gerais associaram-se às mulheres solteiras, com idade ≥35 anos, que realizaram pré-natal inadequado e tardio, com gestações duplas ou mais. Em relação aos recém-nascidos, as malformações foram associadas com alto risco para sequelas tardias, peso entre ≤1.000g e <2.500g e ser do sexo masculino.

Comorbidities and the risk of death among individuals infected by COVID-19 in Espírito Santo, Brazil

Abstract INTRODUCTION: We investigated the association of self-reported comorbidities with fatality risk among individuals infected with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Espírito Santo State, Brazil. METHODS: We included 212,620 individuals, ≥30 years old. The data were obtained from the COVID-19 panel. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression model were used. RESULTS: COVID-19-positive individuals presenting with chronic conditions were at a higher risk of fatality than individuals without these comorbidities. Age had a significant effect on these relationships. CONCLUSIONS: Comorbidities were associated with an increased risk of fatality. Middle-aged people (30-59 years) with comorbidities should also be considered as a vulnerable group.

Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea.

INTRODUCTION: Mathematical models have been used to obtain long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: The daily COVID-19 case count in two Brazilian states was used to show the potential limitations of long-term forecasting through the application of a mathematical model to the data. RESULTS: The predicted number of cases at the end of the epidemic and at the moment that the peak occurs, is highly dependent on the length of the time series used in the predictive model. CONCLUSIONS: Predictions obtained during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic need to be viewed with caution.

Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt's model.

INTRODUCTION: We evaluated the performance of the Holt's model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. METHODS: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. RESULTS: The Holt's model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state. CONCLUSIONS: The Holt's model can be an adequate short-term forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.

Clinical response to antibiotics in indigenous versus non-indigenous children under 5 years old with community-acquired pneumonia in Otavalo, Ecuador.

INTRODUCTION: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. This study compares the clinical response to antimicrobials between indigenous and non-indigenous Kichwa children under 5 years old with CAP in Otavalo, Ecuador. METHODS: All children with CAP who met the inclusion criteria and were admitted at the San Luis de Otavalo Hospital between March 2017 and June 2018 were evaluated. RESULTS: No significant differences were observed in clinical responses between indigenous and non-indigenous children. CONCLUSIONS: The improved healthcare access of the Otavalo's Kichwa population may have contributed to the observed clinical response to CAP treatment.

Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt's model

Introduction: We evaluated the performance of the Holt's model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. Methods: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. Results: The Holt's model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state. Conclusions: The Holt's model can be an adequate shortterm forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.

Temporal trend of HIV/AIDS cases in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, 2007-2016. / Tendência temporal dos casos de HIV/aids no estado de Minas Gerais, 2007 a 2016.

OBJECTIVE: to analyze the temporal trend of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) incidence, detection and mortality coefficients in the state of Minas Gerais between 2007 and 2016. METHODS: this was a time series study of data held on the Notifiable Health Conditions Information System (Sinan) using Prais-Winsten regression. RESULTS: in the period studied, 35,349 cases were notified, with predominance of sexually transmitted cases (81.7%), 50.3% of which were heterosexual cases and 22.8% were homosexual cases. AIDS incidence increased (annual change 1.6%; 95%CI 0.0;3.3) as did HIV detection (annual change 60.3%; 95%CI 22.9;109.0). The mortality rate was stationary; HIV+ notifications increased from 3.8% in 2007 to 65.1% in 2016. CONCLUSION: the growing trend of HIV+ detection coincided with the government strategy to identify cases. AIDS incidence increased.

Pertussis epidemiological pattern and disease burden in Brazil: an analysis of national public health surveillance data.

Objective: We described pertussis epidemiological trends in Brazil between 2010 and 2015. We also assessed tetanus, diphtheria and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine coverage among pregnant women from 2014, the year of the introduction of Tdap maternal immunization recommendation in Brazil, to 2016.Methods: Epidemiological data for incidence, prevalence, hospitalization, mortality, and maternal vaccination coverage were calculated based on the Brazilian public surveillance databases.Results: The epidemiological data analysis results showed that the pertussis average incidence rate (IR) was 2.19/100,000 inhabitants for all ages, with a peak in 2014 (4.03/100,000 inhabitants) and highest incidence in <1-year-old children (IR = 175.20/100,000). 97.6% of pertussis deaths (405/415) were in <1-year-old children. Maternal immunization coverage was 9.2% in 2014, 40.4% in 2015, and 33.8% in 2016.Conclusions: Pertussis incidence and pertussis-related deaths increased in Brazil from 2010 to 2014 and decreased in 2015. In the two years, 2015 and 2016 that followed the NIP recommendation, Tdap vaccination coverage of pregnant women was low and varying from region to region. More efforts and national plans would help increase awareness and maternal immunization coverage.

Clinical response to antibiotics in indigenous versus non-indigenous children under 5 years old with community-acquired pneumonia in Otavalo, Ecuador

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. This study compares the clinical response to antimicrobials between indigenous and non-indigenous Kichwa children under 5 years old with CAP in Otavalo, Ecuador. METHODS: All children with CAP who met the inclusion criteria and were admitted at the San Luis de Otavalo Hospital between March 2017 and June 2018 were evaluated. RESULTS: No significant differences were observed in clinical responses between indigenous and non-indigenous children. CONCLUSIONS: The improved healthcare access of the Otavalo's Kichwa population may have contributed to the observed clinical response to CAP treatment.

Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Mathematical models have been used to obtain long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: The daily COVID-19 case count in two Brazilian states was used to show the potential limitations of long-term forecasting through the application of a mathematical model to the data. RESULTS: The predicted number of cases at the end of the epidemic and at the moment that the peak occurs, is highly dependent on the length of the time series used in the predictive model. CONCLUSIONS: Predictions obtained during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic need to be viewed with caution.

Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holts model

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: We evaluated the performance of the Holt's model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. METHODS: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. RESULTS: The Holt's model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state. Conclusions: The Holt's model can be an adequate short-term forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.

Spatiotemporal distribution of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome incidence in Brazil between 2012 and 2016

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) remains a major public health issue in Brazil. This ecological study aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution of notified new AIDS cases in Brazil between 2012 and 2016. METHODS: A Bayesian spatiotemporal model based on the Poisson distribution was used to obtain smoothed incidence estimates of AIDS in each of the 133 Brazilian intermediate regions. RESULTS: Spatial distribution of new AIDS cases is highly heterogeneous. Regions with higher gross domestic product per capita tend to have higher incidence rates of AIDS. CONCLUSIONS: Strategies to prevent and control AIDS should consider regional differences.